Thursday, August 25, 2011

Gold is Correcting

When Gold hit a record $1917 an ounce this week, which was up 16% from earlier this month, trend profit taking set in creating a market correction and gold has been dropping.  The Shanghai Gold Exchange on Tuesday raised gold margins by 26% and the CME in the United States on Thursday raised gold margins 22%, both of which undoubtedly created margin calls and more selling.  Professional traders have learned and practice profit harvesting in which they reduce positions to capture and lock in gains over 20%, depending on the market and position, and definitely when they have substantial gains, such as 100%.  Even private investors who have gold at $400 or $800 basis should have been reducing their positions to no less than their original investment to lock in profits.  Gold is a crisis hedge and has been going up accordingly.  With the continuing crisis in the eurozone and the determination of eurozone leaders to pursue austerity which will only increase and magnify the problems slowing growth in Europe and globally, gold will stop its downward moves on economic news perceived negatively and start back up.  What one wants to avoid is the historically documented reversals of gold from highs to prior lows such as $400 and $800.

Some have characterized this correction in gold prices to panic selling, because it was overbought, and to fears the FED will not satisfy the market with comments on Friday from the Jackson Hole economic discussion meeting, which is reaching for causation since the FED has little it could announce from such an academic exercise.  With the margins being raised, we are seeing the same market correction silver saw in May.  It was time then to sell silver and it is time now to sell gold and harvest profits.
Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter was one of the professional trading advisors who began cutting their gold holdings on Tuesday when gold got "frothy" at $1910. On the same day, Nouriel Roubini was sending messages that gold was in a hyperbolic bubble, which implies a possible correction, although he also acknowledged, as I stated above, that uncertainty is rising and gold should consequently continue upward after a correction.  It does not appear that any gold correction will burst the bubble given the uncertainty in Europe and slowing global growth which will make the economies of Europe worse faster, but it will briefly reduce the size of the bubble as the professional and smart traders lock up their profits.

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