Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Recession, Recession, Recession?

Last week, Lakshman Acthulan of ECRI gave an interview in which he discussed the slow growth in the United States and how economic indicators show we are heading for recession if we are not already in recession.

Watch the interview here.

John Hussman asked last week if we have avoided recession and he found little evidence of any meaningful reduction in recession risks and underlying recessionary pressures are unchanged.

Last week, Jeremy Grantham decried the lack of growth in the United States as a lack of political will to provide jobs, to repair infrastructure, to stop the declining effectiveness of education and training, and government's unwillingness to confront long term issues as well as the drastic decline in income equality.  The negative is overwhelming the positive and it is not only framing attitudes, but it has substantially restructured the middle class according to Dan Little and has created a much larger class of unemployed than the official figures, because they are not counted and no longer exist for statistical purposes.

Given the recession in Europe, much less the growing economic crisis in which Europeans think fiscal union is balancing budgets and punishing deficit countries rather than having a common Treasury with taxing powers which enables a proper fiscal transfer mechanism which is economically necessary in any successful currency union and in which Europeans think eurobonds are shared liabilities rather than an issuance of a common Treasury with taxing powers, and the slowing growth in China, recession risks are emerging globally and the an implosion in Europe could drive the world into a depression.


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Monday, December 12, 2011

Blogging, Clients, and the Impending European Implosion

In the first week of October, it became obvious that what needed to be done in Europe to avoid a financial crisis which will become a global financial crisis will not only not be done -- it is being ignored and economic history denied in immoveable Orwellian terms.  The EU Summit was a colossal failure and, despite media reports to the contrary, nine countries, other than the UK which opposes the Treaty changes, must consult their parliaments and Ireland may need to seek public approval.  Since the euro has never survived a public vote, it will be interesting to see to what extent the EU will go to suppress any public vote in Ireland or elsewhere as it did in Greece prior to staging its coup d'etat and deposing the democratically elected government of Greece.

To hear more of my analysis, including my concern that the euro has become an enemy of democracy, of the European economic crisis, listen to my most recent radio interview here.

It became my duty to serve my consulting and advisory clients to get them to position themselves appropriately consistent with their business model and to rebalance individual portfolios defensively.   Anyone who has not taken by advice or implemented my advice: Good Luck.  Desired results require decisive and informed action.

Consequently, I have not been blogging despite have several large articles researched which I have not had the time to write.  I would like to write everyday.  However, I do not like to write just to write but when I have something substantive to say.  What little advertising is on this blog site is obvious and minimal.  The links --- all links --- within my blogs are substantive sources and often offer different views.  No links within my blogs are advertising, which I find a repugnant practice.  Blogging is not about making money; it is about ideas and communication and discussion.  Other bloggers, not all, have found my practice of link referencing sources, much as academic papers would be referenced, and providing extended reading material through those links as impediments to cross publication.  On the other hand, individual opinions without substantiation seldom rise to Proustian levels. It also means I do not close my mind to different viewpoints and attempt to remain true to the data and the developing macroeconomic environment.  I have never been a joiner of cliques and have been schooled in critical thinking in which no one's opinions, including my own, are sacrosanct.  If this offends others, so be it.


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Saturday, December 10, 2011

Europe & Its Danger to the Global Economy

In a 12/3/2011 radio appearance on Saturday Session with Bishop, I discussed how serious the economic situation is in Europe and the potential consequences the current economic and political policies of the eurozone could have for Europe, the U.S., and the world.

Listen to it here.  There is a Bernanke news lead in to the actual interview.


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