2026-2027 FAFSA and the Obstruction of Educational Opportunity

 The new 2026027 FAFSA application is available to a limited number students as a beta test with release to all in October.

The new "Budget" bill significantly lowers and limits loan amounts to the point where education cannot be fully funded which may eventually create less college applicant competition for children of wealthy families who may not be as academically or intellectually gifted.  

This will be particularly true for medical school applicants.

Here is the official government student aid web page (for as long as the Department of Education is allowed to continue existence).  Here is the form.

With the deconstruction of the US Department of Education, it is obvious that opportunity to education, which began with Lincoln's Land Grant colleges and given a revolutionary boost after World War II with veterans educational benefits allowing many veterans to become the first members of their families to attend college and contribute to the making of a postwar growing economy, is being aborted and obstructed.

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Trump's Economic March Towards Failed State Authoritarianism

 In our prior post, we commented on the President's irrational firing of the BLS Commissioner and his creating international economic concern about the credible reliability of United States economic statistics going forward if they must have his personal approval.  The BLS is staffed with hundreds of professionals working in separate groups following written guidelines for gathering information over time to create accurate information and necessary revisions as more information comes in over extended time.

His economic "advisor" Kevin Hassett continues to attempt to give him political cover by denying his economic education and continuing his history of providing politically convenient economic opinions which fail factual documentation.

Combined with The President's Chaos Tariffs, which are pushing the United States back to the 1920's economy, and his dictatorial attacks on the independent Federal Reserve, which would push the United States back to 1929 when the stock market crash led to a reform of the Federal Reserve to make it less political and more economically rigorous.

See these links:

Trump's tantrum 

Trump's paranoia  

Trump's authoritarian need to control information 

Trump's desperation and need to deny reality and truth 

Trump's making of a failed state and authoritarianism 

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Reliable, Credible Governmental Statistics or Chaos and Anger?

    The BLS July jobs report came in with only 73,000 jobs and significantly reduced May and June.  The data was seasonally adjusted as it normally is periodically and became aligned in a more logical trend with the private sector ADP jobs reports.

    In a Presidential tantrum when confronted with undesirable reality, His Royal Highness fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics laying the pathway away from certainty past uncertainty and to international doubt that United States economic governmental statistics can be statistically reliable.  Welcome to the disbelief regime of Banana Republic.

    The economy in the first half of this year has slowed to approximately 1.5%.  President Tantrum has shot himself in the foot in denying the economic reality and statistical data that might actually convince the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates in the coming months --- just as he has been autocratically demanding without justification.  

    Tariff reality is making its economic appearance in the data and the cards will continue to fall into the rabbit hole of tariff uncertainty and Presidential chaos.  Will it cause enough fear and doubt to cause the AI tech stock market bubble to burst?

    President Tantrum has us all following the White Rabbit down the rabbit hole to present ourselves to His Royal Highness dressed as the Queen of Hearts dancing amidst chaos and anger shouting "Shoot the Messenger! Off with Reality's heads!  Don't they know how long you have to run to stay in the same place?"

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Using Social Security for Immigrant Coercion is Illegal

Homeland Security had the Social Security Administration place over 6000 social security numbers of immigrants, which are normally issued under authorization of Homeland Security, who are living in the United States in the Death File.   The intent is to force the immigrants to leave the United States.

This is an illegal act of coercion which also results in providing inaccurate consumer information under the Fair Credit Reporting Act and could result in civil liability actions.

Obviously, despite Homeland Security undocumented assertions to the contrary, these are not criminals, since they would be involved in Constitutional due process legal actions, but immigrants who have or had work authorization.

Undocumented immigrants, who work and who cannot collect Social Security or retirement benefits, have an ITIN number rather than a Social Security number, which facilitates the employer in making payments of Social Security taxes which amount to roughly $20 billion dollars a year in cash flow which helps finance Social Security.

While coercion is a fundamental tool of organized crime, Homeland Security has created an illegal multi-billion dollar No-Win with substantially negative immediate economic and longer term economic growth problems, which would result in serious consequences in an organized criminal entity.

 

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FAFSA 2025-2026 Forms and Informational Resources

     The 2025-26 FAFSA application  is still being Beta tested and will be available on December 1, 2024.

    Here are some informational links with setting up accounts, calculator tools, etc.

    Here are the FAFSA  and some different deadlines in each state or territory.

    Start early and diligently followup to insure proper and accurate review and to meet the correction deadlines.

    Better luck than last year which saw a decrease nationally in enrollment.

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FAFSA Forms Corrected; Schools/Applicants left waiting

 The FAFSA forms for student aid have finally been corrected to include current inflation tables, but this means applicants must correct applications, which were due at schools in January, and after approved by the Department of Education, sent to schools some time in March.

Good luck.

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You will get Less FAFSA student aid than you Deserve

 While the FAFSA student aid application has been made easier to use, shorter, and the Pell Grant and Max Award should increase, the calculator in the on-line form has an error which will provide a Student Aid Income figure which will be higher than it should be and qualify the student for less aid than they should receive.

This error, that the different percentages of protected income should be inflation adjusted annually was not included in the current calculation table, was noted repeatedly in the comments period.  The Department of Education said it did not have the time for 2024-25 year and would correct it for the 2025-26 period.  The Law specified the period of April 2020 to April 2023, which was a period of high inflation, should be used in implementation.

Student aid from an educational institution takes many forms.  Be sure to not depend on the gross aid amount and look at the different components of the aid offered to see what is really covered.  Here is a simple list of categories.  You may find there are conditions or exclusions of some expenses.

 

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Is the Federal Reserve wrong on unemployment/inflation?

The stock market is down today on a a relatively strong jobs report, because New Keynesian economics and the Phillips Curve say unemployment must rise to lower inflation.

The Bank of International Settlements in its 2022 Annual Report questioned the reliability of the Phillips Curve in the current economic environment of post Pandemic supply chain disruption aggravated by the Ukraine -Russia War with its food and natural gas/oil supply disruptions.

 The wage and price-setting mechanisms and interactions at the very heat of the inflation process are glossed over in the Phillips Curve process hiding the play between worker's bargaining power and capital and resulting in a flattening of the Phillip's Curve.  Studies have shown that in an open economy with a fiat currency, it is possible to have a dramatic increase in employment and a flat Phillips Curve whereas in  a flexible exchange economy a trade-off between inflation and unemployment is unavoidable.

The American Rescue Plan provided a necessary stimulus to the post pandemic lock down and

Economic Growth Towards Normalcy is not Hot Inflation

The current U.S. stock market is suffering the unfamiliarity of people born in 1970 and later who have had no experience with real inflation.  Both CPI and PPI show increases which reflect year-on-year the effect of growth to recovery from the pandemic lows of 2020.  The comparison of month-over-month and year -over-year show the differences in how inflation can be viewed.  While April 2021 PPI is being "reported" as the highest increase since 2009, April 2020 PPI, reported exactly one year ago today, was the biggest drop since 2009.  For more perspective, this is what PPI looks like over the last 25 years.

 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Fed regional Presidents, and Treasury Secretary Yellen have repeatedly, for a few months now, cautioned that there will be transitory inflation as the economy recovers towards normalcy.

Part of this transitory inflation will include increases in normally volatile commodities, such as food and gasoline and increases in commodities in substantially more demand as growth and demand increases until supply and.or production catch up.

The shortage of microchips is an example as it has caused new car and truck production to slow or halt, while the price of used vehicles goes up. The demand for lumber is another example.

Economic recovery from the pandemic recession will require significant continuing governmental fiscal spending to boost economic growth and employment by supporting families and their ability to find safe jobs at a pay level which does not keep them in poverty and allows them to afford child care, transportation, housing, food, medical care, and education expenses.  It is not surprising that women have consequently suffered significant job loss.  Until the long term unemployment rate goes down by millions of people, of which 24% have been unemployed for more than a year, more, the Fed will not be looking seriously at tapering.

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Watching U.S. Repo, Liquidity, and the Fed

As I detailed at length in my last post, U.S. Repo, the Fed, Coronavirus, and Global Demand/Supply Shocks, overnight repo submissions have continued to increase to $123.625 billion on 3/10 and $132,375 billion on 3/11.  As a result the Fed on 3/11/2020 has increased the overnight repo daily funding cap to $175 billion through April 13 to provide the liquidity to ease pressures on funding markets and adequate reserves in the banking system.  Besides offering 14 day repo on Tuesday and Thursday of each week capped at $45 billion each offering,  the Fed will also offer three one month offerings capped at $50 billion each starting Thursday 3/12.

With the continued daily increases in repo submissions and the evolving risks in the global economy, this increase in repo operations was to be expected and shows the commitment of the Fed.

Meanwhile, Italy has shuttered all shops except suppermarkets, food stores, and pharmacies in its nationwide lockdown, India has suspended all tourist visas, and, in a Presidential Oval Office meesage to the nation, President Trump announced he would seek to provide aid to affected workers and small businesses, deferred taxes for certain affected individuals and businesses, restrict travel form Europe for thirty days while not offering any additional stimulus and support for health care during this coronavirus pandemic.  The Oval Office message has not been well received as Asian and European markets have significantly tanked and the U. S. Dow futures show tthe Dow is set to fall 1195 points on opening as I write this.

With reduced global travel, businesses telling workers to work at home, universities sending students home, states, cities, and athletic leagues (NBA suspended its season) limiting public gatherings in the United States (which was 4-6 weeks too slow in preparing and responding to the coronavirus infection), the U.S. and global economy is shutting down.  Consequently, as I detailed in my last post, the recessionary pressures on the U.S. economy is obviously increasing.

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