Sunday, December 21, 2025

Trump Savings Accounts Are Inefficient

We have previously written on the rules and limits of Trump Savings Accounts.  It has become quickly apparent that people, even low income families if they have the disposable income, would be better off contributing to a 529 Plan or, when the child works, to a Roth IRA.

Contributions are not tax deductible and any withdrawals before age 59 1/2 are taxable.

If the government is going to fund $1000, if you apply for it, to newborn children within a limited time period to advance one individual's political advertising, you should take advantage of it, but that amount alone will only grow to about $5800 by age 18.  

How may low income families are going to go to a brokerage where no one who makes their living selling has any time to place them in an indexed fund with an expense not above .1%?  How many low income families would go on line or call to a fund provider like Fidelity or Vanguard to set up a Trump Account?

 The efforts by the Administration to cajole business leaders, wealthy individuals, and other organizations who want to stay or be in the good graces of a current president to make contributions to other people's Trump Saving Accounts is consistent with political corruption.

It is totally inappropriate for a current President to attach their name to any government program, government building, government check, or banner hanging on a government building or property in a republican constitutional democracy.  The President is not the Government.  It is illegal government subsidized political advertising.

Morningstar has a concise article on the 6 reasons a Trump Savings Account is not an efficient investment vehicle.

 

 

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Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Is the Federal Reserve Approaching the Neutral Nominal Policy Rate?

The economist Tom Lawler had an interesting article in the Calculated Risk Newsletter on R* -- the Neutral Interest Rate.

Basically, if one looks at the average best guesses for the current neutral real  rate of interest, a 25 basis point cut in  target federal funds rate range, it would be approximately close to a neutral nominal policy rate.

This would  leave little room to tolerate any future increase in inflation without requiring an increase in the federal funds rate range.

A 25 basis point cut has been baked in the market for this December meeting which would make the federal funds target rate range 3.50-3.75%.  Personally, I would vote to hold for more data as tariffs seep into prices, but the 25 basis point cut is very probable.

Here is the article at Calculated Risk Newsletter. 

 

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