Thursday, November 1, 2018

Capital Township's Inconvenient Financial Numbers

Prologue

This post contains information (administrative expenditures to actual services ratio) I was not allowed to include in a Springfield Journal-Register (SJ-R) letter to the Editor published (after 26 days of publication delay because someone did not like the publicly documented information on file at the Illinois Comptroller’s Office, particularly the administrative costs to services ratio of which I was only allowed to include a conservative calculation which did not include the 20% Township error omitting $374,925 in General Assistance administrative cost despite my documenting the error amount as an administrative expense from FY 2016 and FY2017 reports on file) on September 1, 2018, and two letters submitted on October 16, 2018, which where rejected for publication within two minutes of sending. A requested hyperlink documenting the information source (see the link below) to be published with the letter, which I immediately sent when the published letter was first submitted in early August, was never used on the SJ-R website. 

Two letters, containing much of the information below, submitted on October 16, 2018, were rejected for publication within two minutes of sending.

It is as if someone high up (not the Letters editor) does not want the public information on file at the Illinois Comptroller’s Office discussed publicly in the media.
 
Whatever the motives and reasons, the bottom line is the public discussion of this proposed merger of Capital Township with Sangamon County has been inadequate, truncated, and seemingly suppressed.

I have since learned that the Con op-ed was written as an unpublished letter to the editor a month prior as a protest of the City Council vote to table a City petition to merge Capital Township with the City and later pushed by the SJ-R as the op-ed piece with imposed significant data changes and denied the author a review of the Pro op-ed and the ability to respond to the actual Pro op-ed. This speaks directly to the intentional informational manipulation and suppression of informed public discussion on this issue by the SJ-R.


CAPITAL TOWNSHIP’S INCONVENIENT FINANCIAL NUMBERS


The Pro and Con Op-Ed articles on the proposed absorption of Capital Township, which is entirely within the City of Springfield, by the Sangamon County Board were very disappointing with the “pro’s” self-serving twists and blarney and the “con’s” overly conservative and way too politely constrained attempt. The people of Capital Township (the City of Springfield) deserve a more rigorous discussion than has appeared in local media.

While townships can provide a variety of services, such as roads, cemetery, parks, and general assistance, Capital Township provides only one service (General Assistance) in the FY2017 amount of $755,533 at a direct program administrative cost of $374,925 (just salaries?) while the total Township salaries are $906,779, central Township administrative costs are $851,449 for total Township FY2017 expenditure of $1,981,907.

It is misleadingly convenient to characterize Capital Township efficiency as a single service program (General Assistance) within Capital Township rather than the operation of the whole Township. Because a government exists solely to serve the needs of the people, the ratio of total administrative expenditures to total actual services is how a governmental unit is efficiency evaluated and Capital Township at $162.32 for each $100 of services is excessively higher and more grossly inefficient than any other Sangamon County Township government. Chatham Township, which provides road, cemetery, recreation/parks, General Assistance, and community building services has an expenditure to services ratio of $44.49 for every $100 of services. It is purposefully misleading to try to pose Capital Township solely on its welfare expenses to welfare services ratio. Capital

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Tariffs, Uncertainty, Investment, and U.S. Trade Deficit

Tariffs increase uncertainty domestically and internationally. decrease corporate investment, and will not decrease the U. S. trade deficit.

From Marc to Market "Tariffs will not Reduce the U.S. Trade Deficit"
"The US trade deficit is likely to widen due to growth differentials and the impact of taxes on imports." 

 From the New York Fed --- "Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits?"
"... what seems clear from our analysis is that import tariffs will reduce both imports and exports."

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Turkey is Harvesting the Risks of Its Foreign Denominated Debt

Noah Smith has hit the nail on the head when he writes that Turkey's currency crisis is the direct result, as many emerging nations have experienced, of issuing debt denominated in foreign currencies rather than its own currency.

It is just bad economics for any nation to issue debt in a foreign currency.  I wrote about this in relation to Argentina in 2010 and Argentina still, today, has the problems associated with foreign

Saturday, August 11, 2018

When Government Serves Only Some People --- Video

In Illinois there are over 1400 (1429-1431 depending on who you ask) and 25 townships in Sangamon County which cost County residents $6,461,080 in 2017 property taxes which works out to $84.42 in administrative expenses for each $100 of services, which is not just grossly inefficient, it is obscene.  In fact the administrative expenses may be even higher because some expenditures,

Friday, August 10, 2018

Tariffs and Trade Wars

Markets do not like tariffs.  They react negatively and add to markets dislike of economic and political uncertainty.  Trade wars only intensify economic and political uncertainty.  The United States not only imports, it exports.  Both imports and exports result in jobs.  In a trade war, job losses

Thursday, August 9, 2018

The Flattening Yield Curve as a Sign of Economic Strength

The economist, Tim Duy, has written another article on the flattening yield curve in which he details how, given our current economy and economic data, the current flattening yield curve is most likely an all clear signal of economic strength. He concludes, "The thing to fear is when inflationary

Saturday, July 21, 2018

When is a Flattening Yield Curve Inversion Really Significant?

Tim Duy has written an excellent article on the recession significance of a flattening yield curve inversion in which he concludes it is not likely to result in a recession until the Federal Reserve continues hiking rates after the inversion.  I think he is correct.

There has been a lot of alarmist speculation on yield curve inversions signaling recession without a thorough look at history and the differences with the past that a long flattening of the yield curve in a

Thursday, June 28, 2018

The Path to Pension Reform in Illinois is not Pretty

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank and the Civic Federation held a conference in April to assess the State's options with respect to its pension systems liabilities.

A copy of "Navigating Pension Reform in Illinois" can be found here.

Basically, the report says what we all know that the State has ignored its funding mandates, that

Sunday, April 1, 2018

What Is The Aggregate Real Rate of Return of Risky and Safe Investments In The Economy?

 About four weeks ago in my Weekly Research links provided on a daily basis to subscribers, I linked to a NBER study through an ungated earlier version, because NBER paywalls the general public.  The title is "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015" by Jorda, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick, and Taylor.  The paper asks "What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Tax Software Exposes Users to Phishing

 When you get email that requests you use a link, you need to ignore it, check the sender source embedded in the mail, and if you think you should take action you do so my going (by entering in your browser) to the known real website and accessing your account.  There are all kinds of tax season and IRS phishing scams.  Be suspicious.  Know the IRS never contacts you be email or phone; they use US mail only.  Most recently users of popular tax software programs have been subject to phishing attacks.


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Emerging Market ETFs and Global Risk

 A recent paper studied investor flow into and out of emerging market ETFs and found they amplified global risks and ignored local conditions unlike market indexes and and mutual funds which did not.

I recommend reading the paper, because it suggests to me that investors ignore what is going on with the actual holdings of the ETF within a more comprehensive macroeconomic assessment.  This exposes those local markets to an exaggerated global financial risk and increases market volatility.

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Thursday, February 1, 2018

Exchange Traded Funds 101

I have written some short articles on ETFs trying to discuss potential liquidity problems, some inappropriate structures, and trading costs (as opposed to buying and holding) and I have some more articles planned as I have time to write.

The newest edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives has an interesting article, which is linked in my Daily Research Links available to subscribers, entitled "Exchange-Traded Funds 101 for Economists".  While the article addresses structure and types of funds, liquidity, trading implications,

Estimating Potential GDP and Output Gap

 I have been very interested  in output gap estimating and researching the issue, because there are economic theory conflicts which muddy what governmental fiscal policy should be.  While I have not had the time to pull my research together in an article, I continue to follow the subject and add to my research.

The CBPP has a new paper out entitled "Real-Time Estimates of Potential GDP: Should the Fed

Monday, January 15, 2018

2018 Employer Withhholding May Turn and Bite You

The New IRS withholding calculator will not be available until February, the old W4's will continue to be used despite no longer reflecting the new tax law and 2018 employer withholding may result in under withholding  resulting in higher taxes owed at year end and possible tax penalties, particularly if there is more than one income in the family, you work at more than one job during the year, and/or you have multiple jobs at the same time.

You will need to proactively monitor and review your withholding, including using the new

Friday, January 5, 2018

2018 Tax Facts and Dates

 Morningstar has published a very succinct listing of 2018 tax facts, as a result of the new tax law, and important tax dates in the link above. The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) has always been about information.  Some people, when reading our articles, do not read or dismiss the embedded links which provide not only pro but

Saturday, December 30, 2017

Watch for Eonia Year End Spikes

In the last two days of November, the Eonia, which is the one day Euribor rate, spiked 6.1% and 6%, which is very unusual.  Bloomberg gave, as an explanation, that the National Bank of Greece had excess liquidity of 450 million euro which it loaned in the last two days of November to peers in its country, but would that cause two days of 6% spikes?  Was something else going on with eurozone bank liquidity?

The two regional Italian banks Carige and Creval have been struggling for additional funding, along with four other small Italian banks, to meet the ECB balance sheet liquidity rules and lower allowable NPLs (non-performing loans).  But any month end liquidity needs would have been relatively small.  However, new ECB bad loan rules will become effective January 1, 2018 despite significant opposition, particularly from Italy.  This will put additional pressure on Italian banks, because, while eurozone banks as a whole have 5% NPLs, Italian banks have 15% of that 5%.  The final compromise is to enforce the new NPL rules on a bank by bank basis, whatever that means.

Meanwhile, on 18 November Monte dei Praschi di Sienna, had to put $671 million (569.4 million euro) in reserve, before its new reorganization board meets for the first time in December, which

Friday, December 29, 2017

Job Losses Under New Tax Law Already Beginning

Under the new U. S.  tax law, corporate interest deductions are capped at 30 % of adjusted taxable income (ATI).  I have already seen a privately owned company (owned by a private equity firm) announcing major layoffs effective at year end and internally communicate the new tax law  will result in paying higher taxes. 

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Full Text of Final GOP Tax Bill

 It is the intent of the GOP Congressional leadership to vote on this bill as soon as possible to preempt any informed debate or public review or discussion.  The vote will purposefully be prior to any CBO fiscal analysis, despite an at least $1.4 trillion deficit impact, or any Joint Conference on Taxation analysis as normally required.  The Tax Bill is a huge economic blunder which will cut spending on infrastructure, education, make health insurance more expensive, do nothing to boost wages, and put a bullseye on Medicare and Social Security.

Here is a link to a post by a tax attorney/law professor providing a links to the full 1097 page bill and  a 570 page explanation.

The economic "benefits" are based on historically inaccurate assumptions of trickle down economics and false arguments to justify huge benefits to the very wealthy as opposed to little or no benefits (in some case even more taxes paid in future years)  for the the middle class or poor.  This bill will economically cripple the Affordable Care Act and increase American citizens without health care by 10-13 million.  It is direct attack on higher education and public education.

When the patently erroneously revenue assumptions prove systemically lacking, you may expect these GOP Congressional leaders to propose massive cuts in Social Security and Medicare to make up for their purposefully misrepresentation of the tax bill's revenue.

It pays to be a big money political donor.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

See How GOP Tax Plan Will Impact Your Taxes

Here is an interactive page where you can click on your state and then click your tax bracket and see if you benefit or actually pay more in future years.  You may be surprised what happens in 2019 and how different it will be by 2027.  People in lower tax brackets are going to see how they will pay for the benefits thrown at the the highest tax brackets.

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Thursday, November 2, 2017

Daily Research Links for Week #388 (August 14 - 21, 2017)

Here is the link (which is a private page) to The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links for Week #388.  I am now working on Week #399.  The Week #388 is a Pdf which is ten pages long with active links for you to follow.  You may want to bookmark the above Daily Research link and visit as you have time.  These links are available on a current Daily basis by e-mail (just those days links) to subscribers to The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links.  To request a subscription, contact me at mjscpa@sbcglobal.net.

These links contain differing viewpoints which are worth reading and, therefore, do not connote my approval or disapproval.  They are articles, audio, video, Pdf documents, studies, etc. on macroeconomic and financial issues of value in understanding what is going on in various countries, the world, and the markets.

You might also want to check out the home page of my professional website www.mjscpaplan.com.

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Monday, October 16, 2017

Daily Research Links for Week #387 (August 7-13, 2017)

The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links for Week #387 are 12 pages long and can be found here.  I am presently working on Week #397.  The Daily Research Links contain a variety of viewpoints worth reading and digesting; it should not be assumed I agree or support any particular viewpoint, particularly when I am presently a variety of viewpoints on an issue or subject.

These Research Links are in the original language, may contain audio, video, long studies, etc on macroeconomic and financial issues   These help me understand what is going on in the world, in different countries, market sectors, companies, and economies.

These Daily Research Links can be sent by e-mail world-wide on a current daily basis if one wishes to subscribe by contacting me at mjscpa@sbcglobal.net.

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Monday, October 2, 2017

Daily Research Links for Week #386 (July 31 - August 6, 2017)

 Here is the link to The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research links sent daily to subscribers world wide for Week #385.  It is 13 pages long.  I am now working on Week #395.

As I have indicated, the links do not reflect my agreement but only that they are worth considering.  The links may be audio, video, pdf documents, long studies,as well as news and other articles, and are always in the original language (not translated). 

This is research I do on a daily basis as a fiduciary fee only registered investment advisor.  No matter where you live in this world, if you wish to subscribe to The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links you may contact me at mjscpa@sbcglobal.net.

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Friday, September 29, 2017

Data Breach: Lock or Freeze Credit

If you have had your credit information stolen or exposed to a data breach, such as Equifax, you need to monitor your credit and bank accounts.

The data breach at Equifax apparently compromised personal information in one of its credit monitoring programs (where consumers can "safely" have their credit monitored for unauthorized use) which included birth dates and social security numbers.  While they are now offering a free (and new) lifetime credit lock program where you control who has access to your credit information, I would be reluctant to trust them again.  Their initial response to the data breach was tardy and the initial data breach customer service website they set up looked like a phishing website.

If you have recently received notification that a debit or credit card is being replaced as the result of a data breach, you would be wise to assume it is probably Equifax related.

Immediately monitor your credit card and/or bank accounts twice daily.  You can use Credit Karma to monitor Transunion and Equifax and Credit Sesame to monitor Experian; both are free.  I would avoid any credit monitoring service which charges a fee.

For the most part, a credit lock program are designed to be continuing fee services and are marketed by credit reporting services, while a credit freeze involves an initial fee and a fee for each temporary lifting (should be $10 --- if you are over 65 years old, an active duty military, or a victim of identity theft it should be free).  The Illinois Attorney General provides information, including form letters for each credit reporting service, on what the fees should be for different individuals and I would expect other state attorney generals to also provide this information.  You should also be able to get non-state specific information from the Consumer's Union.

On the whole, you would probably be better off with doing a security (credit) freeze then getting netted by what is normally a more expensive credit lock marketed program.  Do the credit (security) freeze.

Update 10/3/17:

It may cost victims of Equifax data breach $4.1 billion to freeze credit.

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Saturday, September 23, 2017

Daily Research Links for Week #385 (July 24-39, 2917)

The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links for Week #385 are here.  They are 12 pages long.  All links are in original language and may include audio, video, or long studies.  They are macroeconomic and financial information worth reading and do not imply I agree or endorse them.  You have to be able to consider and apply critical thinking to anything you read.

I am presently working on Week #393.  If you are interested in an eamil subscription to The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM) Daily Research Links, no matter where you live in this World, contact me at mjscpa@sbcglobal.net.

As thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.com website is constructed it will archive all past  daily research links (after 4 weeks of existence to non-subscribers) and research topics.    We will also have podcasts again as subjects deserve the attention.


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Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Daily Research Links for Week #384 (July 18-24, 2017)

Here is another week of daily research links for Week #384 for The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM).  I am now working on Week #393.

Week #384 is only 12 pages long.   As I have indicated previously, these links are being provided to not just inform, but to allow readers to determine the value of these economic and financial research links, that I use. 

If you would like to receive them on a daily subscription basis, wherever you live in the world, let me know at mjscpa@sbcglobal.net.

We are in the process of designing thepursuitoffinancialhappiness.com website where we will archive past research topics and weekly links which are at least 4 week old.  We may also put together some past writings and form them cohesively into The Pursuit of Financial Happiness(TM)  e-books on investing, estate planning, and other relevant topics. 


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