Wednesday, January 31, 2024

FAFSA Forms Corrected; Schools/Applicants left waiting

 The FAFSA forms for student aid have finally been corrected to include current inflation tables, but this means applicants must correct applications, which were due at schools in January, and after approved by the Department of Education, sent to schools some time in March.

Good luck.

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Monday, December 4, 2023

You will get Less FAFSA student aid than you Deserve

 While the FAFSA student aid application has been made easier to use, shorter, and the Pell Grant and Max Award should increase, the calculator in the on-line form has an error which will provide a Student Aid Income figure which will be higher than it should be and qualify the student for less aid than they should receive.

This error, that the different percentages of protected income should be inflation adjusted annually was not included in the current calculation table, was noted repeatedly in the comments period.  The Department of Education said it did not have the time for 2024-25 year and would correct it for the 2025-26 period.  The Law specified the period of April 2020 to April 2023, which was a period of high inflation, should be used in implementation.

Student aid from an educational institution takes many forms.  Be sure to not depend on the gross aid amount and look at the different components of the aid offered to see what is really covered.  Here is a simple list of categories.  You may find there are conditions or exclusions of some expenses.

 

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Friday, October 7, 2022

Is the Federal Reserve wrong on unemployment/inflation?

The stock market is down today on a a relatively strong jobs report, because New Keynesian economics and the Phillips Curve say unemployment must rise to lower inflation.

The Bank of International Settlements in its 2022 Annual Report questioned the reliability of the Phillips Curve in the current economic environment of post Pandemic supply chain disruption aggravated by the Ukraine -Russia War with its food and natural gas/oil supply disruptions.

 The wage and price-setting mechanisms and interactions at the very heat of the inflation process are glossed over in the Phillips Curve process hiding the play between worker's bargaining power and capital and resulting in a flattening of the Phillip's Curve.  Studies have shown that in an open economy with a fiat currency, it is possible to have a dramatic increase in employment and a flat Phillips Curve whereas in  a flexible exchange economy a trade-off between inflation and unemployment is unavoidable.

The American Rescue Plan provided a necessary stimulus to the post pandemic lock down and

Thursday, May 13, 2021

Economic Growth Towards Normalcy is not Hot Inflation

The current U.S. stock market is suffering the unfamiliarity of people born in 1970 and later who have had no experience with real inflation.  Both CPI and PPI show increases which reflect year-on-year the effect of growth to recovery from the pandemic lows of 2020.  The comparison of month-over-month and year -over-year show the differences in how inflation can be viewed.  While April 2021 PPI is being "reported" as the highest increase since 2009, April 2020 PPI, reported exactly one year ago today, was the biggest drop since 2009.  For more perspective, this is what PPI looks like over the last 25 years.

 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Fed regional Presidents, and Treasury Secretary Yellen have repeatedly, for a few months now, cautioned that there will be transitory inflation as the economy recovers towards normalcy.

Part of this transitory inflation will include increases in normally volatile commodities, such as food and gasoline and increases in commodities in substantially more demand as growth and demand increases until supply and.or production catch up.

The shortage of microchips is an example as it has caused new car and truck production to slow or halt, while the price of used vehicles goes up. The demand for lumber is another example.

Economic recovery from the pandemic recession will require significant continuing governmental fiscal spending to boost economic growth and employment by supporting families and their ability to find safe jobs at a pay level which does not keep them in poverty and allows them to afford child care, transportation, housing, food, medical care, and education expenses.  It is not surprising that women have consequently suffered significant job loss.  Until the long term unemployment rate goes down by millions of people, of which 24% have been unemployed for more than a year, more, the Fed will not be looking seriously at tapering.


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