We have noted in past radio shows and prior posts how the Fed appears to be using unemployment to hold down inflation. We have noted that the "Recovery" appears to be focused solely on the return of the financial system status quo prior to the Financial Crisis and the resumption of risky but profitable business trading. Volcker has commented on the fact that no economy, which has 30% of its GDP from synthetic financial services, can continue without risking another financial crisis. In fact, we have noted the "Recovery" appears to be setting the stage for the very same financial crisis.
In a long post Edward Harrison has written on his belief that the Recession is over but the Depression has just begun. His argument is essentially that the political process, of which Congressional actions are only one example, has created a dysfunctional economic debate, economic recovery policies, and a divisive political debate which serves the special interests but not the Nation. He goes into some detail on what it means globally as well as nationally and what needs to be addressed. While I do not entirely agree with him, his arguments are very worthy of consideration for anyone who is desirous of dealing with the economic conditions as they exist.
It is well known that I believe Geithner and Larry Summers need to go, because they serve Wall Street more than the Nation. Washington'sblog has been very good at delineating Summer's insistence on his way or no way to the point where Volcker is now in Europe speaking for financial reform because Summers has muzzled and isolated him in the United States. Still, there is opposition loyal to President Obama which are attempting to debate and contradict him, however, dangerous that may be. Despite what Summer's says, unemployment will continue to rise and it cannot be ignored. Read the post "Larry Summer's is like the guy who yells the Sun really does revolve around the Earth ..." and sharpen your critical skills.
In past radio shows we have talked about food shortages and riots, economic protests, and even a Joint Special Operations University faculty member's speech at a former intelligence officers conference about the possibilities that prolonged economic crisis could cause social upheaval in countries. My first career was intended to be military and I still do extensive readings on military subjects including papers and publications at the War College and the JSOU. It again appears that there will be food and commodity shortages with increasing prices in 2010. There are two scenarios which could evolve with one being demonstrations, riots, and perhaps revolution in some parts of the world and the other being that the population will become so demoralized by their treatment from the elite who run their governments that they will be passive and do what they are told. Here is one recent article that lists a variety of sources from the establishment and from the fringe for your critical review. Here is an article about how a demoralized people can be made to be passive and do what they are told, although there are more scholarly books over the last 60 years. Constructive political action by an educated and knowledgeable public is not something that should be suppressed in a healthy republican democracy.
James Kwak in The Baseline Scenario has also addressed his frustration with the dysfunctional qualities of the political and economic debates with a "partisan post" on the 8 things of which he is sick.
Again these links are provided for your critical review as comments worthy of being analyzed and thought about in order to peek your research interests or to form opinions which can be substantively argued.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Leftovers from 12/19/2009 Show
On the show, while discussing the new CPI inflation numbers, I mentioned an article by the economist Robert Murphy, who is of the Austrian School of economics and would be expected to be talking about deflation, in which he talked about the growing inflation rate going forward just as I have been. His paper actually predicted the November inflation announced in December as 1.7% and it was 1.84%. He indicated correctly that inflation will continue to rise, perhaps sharply, because the year to year is starting with the end of the 4th Quarter 2008 when prices had fallen significantly. He is projecting 2.7 for December inflation announced in January; I am saying it will be between 2.8 and 2.9% His paper can be found here.
I mentioned that Bloomberg.com and other US media have been ignoring or calling Volcker's European speaking tour in which he calling for financial reform now and the end of "too big to fail" as ineffective and meaningless. Simon Johnson of The Baseline Scenario and a former IMF economist thinks otherwise and has had two posts demonstrating the strength of Volcker's call for reform and the attention it has gotten. In "Paul Volcker Picks up a Bat" he lays out the strength of Volcker's strategy to influence financial reform and in "Wake Up Gentlemen" he lists Volcker's reform points and the public platform he is using more and more. We talked two weeks ago about his UK speech and here is his interview with Der Spiegel when he gave a Berlin speech. Larry Summers has gone to excessive lengths to limit and marginalize and muzzle Paul Volcker. Fortunately, when you limit the options of a man like Paul Volcker you get a man who has nothing to lose and acts.
The economist Nouriel Roubini has made a comparison of the current financial crisis and the the 1930's and found that the same optimism that pervades the media and market in 1937 before a double dip is very similar to what is happening now. I have made similar historical and data comparisons on more than one occasion. I have been talking about the weak US dollar and the carry trade it has spawned, which the Fed denies is happening, and Roubini has been talking about it also and sees at least six months more of carry trade. Two weeks ago we talked about gold and how a savings account over the last thirty years would have had more appreciation than Gold. It is a matter of when one bought gold and at what price. It is one thing to have bought it at $250 or $400 and another if you bought it at $800 or higher. Roubini has written about the flaws in gold investing and how gold may presently be in a bubble and posed to decline in "The Gold Bubble and the Gold Bugs".He ends by indicating that if investors really fear a global meltdown then they should be buying guns, ammunition, canned food, stocking water, and other commodities which can actually be used rather than buying gold.
There has also been two studies published on whether gold is a safe haven from equities or bonds in developed and developing nations and the results were quite mixed and disparate. What it comes down to is it is not just correlation but the price purchased and the holding period and the country.
Greece has had recent credit downgrades and the ECB has made it clear they will not bailout member states. The new Greek government has made cuts in its budget to address its mounting deficit and made a difficult bond placement this last week. There have been youth riots earlier this year which have abated but various demonstrations are continuing. Greece will have to make more cuts and it is difficult to determine how social unrest this will create. It is a country high on our two country watch lists in an older post.
The ECB has made it clear that banks in the 16 nation union, which have already written down 2/3rds of loan losses, may have to write down another 1/3rd in the amount of $267 billion for a total of $796 billion. The ECB also made several comments about the uneven recovery throughout the economy and from country to country.
Fitch said the US high yield corporate bond default is declining and expects 2010 to decline to 6-7% (average is 4.7%) default.
Empire State Manufacturing index fell 21 points to 2.6; new orders fell 14 points to 2.2; shipments fell 7 points to 6.3; unfilled orders fell 18 points to 21.1, lowest in 9 months; prices paid up 9 points to 19.7 while prices received fell 6.6 to 9.2; employment fell 7 points to 5.3; average work week fell 11 points to 5.3.
Philly Fed manufacturing index up to 20.4 from 16.7; prices paid up 19 points to 33.8 while prices received down .3 to1.8; new orders down 8 to 6.5; employment up 7 to 6.3; inventory up 10 to7.4.
ECB made its final tender of 12 months funds to banks($141 billion).
Canadian inflation rate 1% (1/10th % last month).
British retail sales for November down .3 from October but up 3.1% vs year ago; UK prices up 1.9% in November.
US current foreign trade account deficit up 10.3% to $108 billion in Q3 vs Q2.
China industrial production up 19.2% in November; retail sales up 15.8%; consumer prices up but down .9% vs year ago; producer prices down 2.1% vs year ago.
UK banks are voting on whether to abolish checks and require all transactions be by plastic or on-line.
The 3rd largest container shipping company, CMA CGM SA, warned bondholders that bankruptcy is an option if they do not approve plan to allow new lenders first claim on assets --- they want to raise money but need the $570 million current bond holders to modify the bond terms.
Bank of Japan held its interest rate at 1/10th percent.
Mexico S&P rating cut to BBB.
Gross of Pimco has increased the funds cash holdings to the highest level since the Lehman collapse from <7%> to 7% and reduced government securities from 63% to 51%.
Greenspan (Mr. Asset Bubble) said this last week that the stock market rally has negated any need for another "stimulus". As I have asked previously, how has the weak US dollar carry trade not created a US stock market asset bubble?
TCF Financial TARP warrant auction went at $3/share (expected $1.82-4.89) and netted $9.45 million for the US Treasury.
CapOne credit card charge offs rose to 9.6 from 9.11; Discover rose to 8.98 from 8.54.
Home buyers are less likely to buy foreclosed properties than 6 months ago citing hidden costs according to a Harris Interactive survey.
Moody's issued an analysis in which they indicated they expect long-term rates may increase more rapidly than expected; that Aaa rated governments will probably not have the luxury of waiting for recovery before implementing fiscal consolidation plans; and Brazil, India, Russia, and China are unlikely to replace large Aaa rated countries as anchors to the global financial system anytime soon.
The US House of Representatives passed a plug the hole "stimulus" to basically throw life preservers to the states in the amount of $155 billion with 48.3 for infrastructure projects that put people to work by April 2010, 27.5 highway, 8.46 transit systems, 23 to pay teachers and repair schools, 1.2 to pay 5500 police, and 23 for the state's share of health care for the poor. The bill also would extend Cobra 3 months to 15 and extend expiring year end unemployment benefits 6 months.
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I mentioned that Bloomberg.com and other US media have been ignoring or calling Volcker's European speaking tour in which he calling for financial reform now and the end of "too big to fail" as ineffective and meaningless. Simon Johnson of The Baseline Scenario and a former IMF economist thinks otherwise and has had two posts demonstrating the strength of Volcker's call for reform and the attention it has gotten. In "Paul Volcker Picks up a Bat" he lays out the strength of Volcker's strategy to influence financial reform and in "Wake Up Gentlemen" he lists Volcker's reform points and the public platform he is using more and more. We talked two weeks ago about his UK speech and here is his interview with Der Spiegel when he gave a Berlin speech. Larry Summers has gone to excessive lengths to limit and marginalize and muzzle Paul Volcker. Fortunately, when you limit the options of a man like Paul Volcker you get a man who has nothing to lose and acts.
The economist Nouriel Roubini has made a comparison of the current financial crisis and the the 1930's and found that the same optimism that pervades the media and market in 1937 before a double dip is very similar to what is happening now. I have made similar historical and data comparisons on more than one occasion. I have been talking about the weak US dollar and the carry trade it has spawned, which the Fed denies is happening, and Roubini has been talking about it also and sees at least six months more of carry trade. Two weeks ago we talked about gold and how a savings account over the last thirty years would have had more appreciation than Gold. It is a matter of when one bought gold and at what price. It is one thing to have bought it at $250 or $400 and another if you bought it at $800 or higher. Roubini has written about the flaws in gold investing and how gold may presently be in a bubble and posed to decline in "The Gold Bubble and the Gold Bugs".He ends by indicating that if investors really fear a global meltdown then they should be buying guns, ammunition, canned food, stocking water, and other commodities which can actually be used rather than buying gold.
There has also been two studies published on whether gold is a safe haven from equities or bonds in developed and developing nations and the results were quite mixed and disparate. What it comes down to is it is not just correlation but the price purchased and the holding period and the country.
Greece has had recent credit downgrades and the ECB has made it clear they will not bailout member states. The new Greek government has made cuts in its budget to address its mounting deficit and made a difficult bond placement this last week. There have been youth riots earlier this year which have abated but various demonstrations are continuing. Greece will have to make more cuts and it is difficult to determine how social unrest this will create. It is a country high on our two country watch lists in an older post.
The ECB has made it clear that banks in the 16 nation union, which have already written down 2/3rds of loan losses, may have to write down another 1/3rd in the amount of $267 billion for a total of $796 billion. The ECB also made several comments about the uneven recovery throughout the economy and from country to country.
Fitch said the US high yield corporate bond default is declining and expects 2010 to decline to 6-7% (average is 4.7%) default.
Empire State Manufacturing index fell 21 points to 2.6; new orders fell 14 points to 2.2; shipments fell 7 points to 6.3; unfilled orders fell 18 points to 21.1, lowest in 9 months; prices paid up 9 points to 19.7 while prices received fell 6.6 to 9.2; employment fell 7 points to 5.3; average work week fell 11 points to 5.3.
Philly Fed manufacturing index up to 20.4 from 16.7; prices paid up 19 points to 33.8 while prices received down .3 to1.8; new orders down 8 to 6.5; employment up 7 to 6.3; inventory up 10 to7.4.
ECB made its final tender of 12 months funds to banks($141 billion).
Canadian inflation rate 1% (1/10th % last month).
British retail sales for November down .3 from October but up 3.1% vs year ago; UK prices up 1.9% in November.
US current foreign trade account deficit up 10.3% to $108 billion in Q3 vs Q2.
China industrial production up 19.2% in November; retail sales up 15.8%; consumer prices up but down .9% vs year ago; producer prices down 2.1% vs year ago.
UK banks are voting on whether to abolish checks and require all transactions be by plastic or on-line.
The 3rd largest container shipping company, CMA CGM SA, warned bondholders that bankruptcy is an option if they do not approve plan to allow new lenders first claim on assets --- they want to raise money but need the $570 million current bond holders to modify the bond terms.
Bank of Japan held its interest rate at 1/10th percent.
Mexico S&P rating cut to BBB.
Gross of Pimco has increased the funds cash holdings to the highest level since the Lehman collapse from <7%> to 7% and reduced government securities from 63% to 51%.
Greenspan (Mr. Asset Bubble) said this last week that the stock market rally has negated any need for another "stimulus". As I have asked previously, how has the weak US dollar carry trade not created a US stock market asset bubble?
TCF Financial TARP warrant auction went at $3/share (expected $1.82-4.89) and netted $9.45 million for the US Treasury.
CapOne credit card charge offs rose to 9.6 from 9.11; Discover rose to 8.98 from 8.54.
Home buyers are less likely to buy foreclosed properties than 6 months ago citing hidden costs according to a Harris Interactive survey.
Moody's issued an analysis in which they indicated they expect long-term rates may increase more rapidly than expected; that Aaa rated governments will probably not have the luxury of waiting for recovery before implementing fiscal consolidation plans; and Brazil, India, Russia, and China are unlikely to replace large Aaa rated countries as anchors to the global financial system anytime soon.
The US House of Representatives passed a plug the hole "stimulus" to basically throw life preservers to the states in the amount of $155 billion with 48.3 for infrastructure projects that put people to work by April 2010, 27.5 highway, 8.46 transit systems, 23 to pay teachers and repair schools, 1.2 to pay 5500 police, and 23 for the state's share of health care for the poor. The bill also would extend Cobra 3 months to 15 and extend expiring year end unemployment benefits 6 months.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
IRS Comps Citi
In an IRS ruling this week, prior to the Citi Stock offering, Citi will be allowed to keep approximately $38 billion dollars in deferred losses when the government sells its shares. In direct contradiction to a law passed earlier this year which reversed a ruling benefiting Wells Fargo and specifically restricted the ability of the IRS to make further changes in the Internal Revenue Code by ruling, the IRS ruling allows Citi to be exempt from the law which prohibits the use of past losses if a company changes hands in order to discourage profitable companies from buying unprofitable companies to avoid taxes. This is lost money to the government when lower revenue is 56% of the current deficit.
The Citi stock offering subsequently failed miserably pricing in at $3.15 a share only after the underwriter stepped in and bought stock to keep the price from going below $3. Consequently, the government did not sell part of their 34% holdings as planned, because their basis is $3.25. Treasury will not sell any Citi stock now for at least 90 days. The Bank of America stock offering was marginal, particularly given their determination to make no break from the way they have done business as evidenced by their refusal to consider a CEO successor from outside who would have made necessary changes. Still, Citi's stock offering failure only reaffirms the true Zombie nature of their company.
Of course, Congress will investigate the IRS ruling, but the subcommittee is chaired by Rep. Kucinich who asks the hard questions but has no real respect from his lobbyist indebted fellow members of Congress.
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The Citi stock offering subsequently failed miserably pricing in at $3.15 a share only after the underwriter stepped in and bought stock to keep the price from going below $3. Consequently, the government did not sell part of their 34% holdings as planned, because their basis is $3.25. Treasury will not sell any Citi stock now for at least 90 days. The Bank of America stock offering was marginal, particularly given their determination to make no break from the way they have done business as evidenced by their refusal to consider a CEO successor from outside who would have made necessary changes. Still, Citi's stock offering failure only reaffirms the true Zombie nature of their company.
Of course, Congress will investigate the IRS ruling, but the subcommittee is chaired by Rep. Kucinich who asks the hard questions but has no real respect from his lobbyist indebted fellow members of Congress.
Print Page
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Obama & Wall Street Controversy
In an earlier post I touched on Matt Taibbi's Obama & Wall Street article in which he attempts to show Obama is controlled by Wall Street. His basic argument is that Obama relied upon people he knew and those people had their own agenda based on their work associations or, perhaps, as a result of their cultural biases. Just because you know a member of the elitist class does not mean you can trust their judgment. Yet, we are constantly being told if you have not been part of the problem you are not qualified to solve the problem. Imagine what The President's advisers must tell him.
Consequently, I think it is important that you view the links in this post to get a perspective on how facts spin.
Here is an overview of the controversy from Harper's. Here is the reaction to Taibbi's article by Tim Fernholz. Here is Salmon's criticism of Fernholz. Of course, Fernholz continued to react in clarification.
Personally, I think Obama has been played and used and it is now a matter of does he know it and what is he going to do about it. Brad Delong provides a good nutshell analysis.
Any book, any article in a magazine or news paper, any article on the internet has to be approached with a critical analysis. The failure to assess information methodologically is the road to poor judgment and false beliefs.
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Consequently, I think it is important that you view the links in this post to get a perspective on how facts spin.
Here is an overview of the controversy from Harper's. Here is the reaction to Taibbi's article by Tim Fernholz. Here is Salmon's criticism of Fernholz. Of course, Fernholz continued to react in clarification.
Personally, I think Obama has been played and used and it is now a matter of does he know it and what is he going to do about it. Brad Delong provides a good nutshell analysis.
Any book, any article in a magazine or news paper, any article on the internet has to be approached with a critical analysis. The failure to assess information methodologically is the road to poor judgment and false beliefs.
Print Page
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Laws: Banks Don't Need Laws
It just keeps getting worse.
The Basel Committee has new international bank accounting rules scheduled for 2012, but this week they announced they are considering allowing banks a transition period of ten to twenty years to implement, The rules would require an 8% minimum capital ratio and stricter definition of core capital. Remember Lehman had a Tier 1 ratio of 11% when it failed.
The FDIC is going to create a permanent safe harbor for securitizations and participations existing prior to March 31, 2010 and will consider how to treat new ones created after March 31, 2010. This effectively removes the banks from putting over $1 trillion of off balance sheet holdings and securitizations at market value rather than par on their balance sheets. This defeats the FASB rules scheduled to take effect 2010.
The President of the United States summoned bankers to a meeting and Goldman Sachs, J. P Morgan, and Citigroup had more important things to do than meet with the President of the United States and discuss what lending is necessary to create a sustained recovery with jobs. They have key people in the Treasury and economic policy positions (Geithner and Larry Summers to name just two) in the government and they do not have to listen to the President.
The bankers have given lip service to financial reform, but their lobbyists have defeated and built a false facade in the House bill. In fact the banks publicly view any attempt at regulation to be a direct threat to liquidity and the stability of interest rates, which is an argument which depends upon the poor education of the public as their real purpose is to protect high risk (and very profitable) trading and investments while they hoard money for cash reserves to bolster their capital ratios, escape TARP, and resume business as usual with renewed grotesque bonuses. A good description of the bank's political agenda and lobbyist strategy is in a post by Yves Smith on naked capitalist.
How have banks survived the crisis? We have all been exposed to the Financial Crisis and the necessity to rescue the banks at the expense of common citizen's retirement, savings, homes, and jobs and the victory of recovery and jobless prosperity. However, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has evidence that the only liquid investment capital banks on the brink of collapse last year had was proceeds from organized crime. Gang money was used to save some banks when lending seized up. Drug money funded inter-bank loans. While these may have been marginal to Central Bank actions, marginal makes a big difference in the banking industry. Are we to be surprised by the connections between organized crime and drug cartels with banks given the amount of money involved? The complete Guardian article is here.
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The Basel Committee has new international bank accounting rules scheduled for 2012, but this week they announced they are considering allowing banks a transition period of ten to twenty years to implement, The rules would require an 8% minimum capital ratio and stricter definition of core capital. Remember Lehman had a Tier 1 ratio of 11% when it failed.
The FDIC is going to create a permanent safe harbor for securitizations and participations existing prior to March 31, 2010 and will consider how to treat new ones created after March 31, 2010. This effectively removes the banks from putting over $1 trillion of off balance sheet holdings and securitizations at market value rather than par on their balance sheets. This defeats the FASB rules scheduled to take effect 2010.
The President of the United States summoned bankers to a meeting and Goldman Sachs, J. P Morgan, and Citigroup had more important things to do than meet with the President of the United States and discuss what lending is necessary to create a sustained recovery with jobs. They have key people in the Treasury and economic policy positions (Geithner and Larry Summers to name just two) in the government and they do not have to listen to the President.
The bankers have given lip service to financial reform, but their lobbyists have defeated and built a false facade in the House bill. In fact the banks publicly view any attempt at regulation to be a direct threat to liquidity and the stability of interest rates, which is an argument which depends upon the poor education of the public as their real purpose is to protect high risk (and very profitable) trading and investments while they hoard money for cash reserves to bolster their capital ratios, escape TARP, and resume business as usual with renewed grotesque bonuses. A good description of the bank's political agenda and lobbyist strategy is in a post by Yves Smith on naked capitalist.
How have banks survived the crisis? We have all been exposed to the Financial Crisis and the necessity to rescue the banks at the expense of common citizen's retirement, savings, homes, and jobs and the victory of recovery and jobless prosperity. However, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has evidence that the only liquid investment capital banks on the brink of collapse last year had was proceeds from organized crime. Gang money was used to save some banks when lending seized up. Drug money funded inter-bank loans. While these may have been marginal to Central Bank actions, marginal makes a big difference in the banking industry. Are we to be surprised by the connections between organized crime and drug cartels with banks given the amount of money involved? The complete Guardian article is here.
Print Page
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Countries to Watch
In talking about Dubai on the last radio show, I briefly mentioned a few other countries. I also questioned whether the strong US dollar last week was, rather than a possible bottoming as other analyst have speculated, was the result of seeking a safe haven from sovereign default. This week with the welcome but inadequate $10 billion from Abu Dhabi to Dubai, the market "sighed relief " and the US dollar reverted to being weaker. Was I right?
Moody's Misery Index listed countries with public debt in relation to sovereign default risk in descending order or risk: Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Greece, United Kingdom, Iceland, United States, Jamaica, France, Estonia, Portugal, Hungary, Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic. Take note of number 6 and number 8 on the list.
The 6th largest Austrian Bank, Hypo Group Alpe Adria, was was nationalized by the Austrian government as insolvent with 40 billion Euros in assets at the insistence of the ECB's chairman Trichet. The bank is a subsidiary of the German bank, Bavaria BayernLB, which had reported losses of over 1 billion Euros for the second quarter in a row from HGAA. Austrian banks have been the subject of how much exposure they have to lending in weak Eastern European countries and some analysts consider German banks fragile as the result of reckless lending seeking high returns. Credit Writedowns has an excellent article on the nationalization of HGPP and its relation to what is going on in Austria, Germany, Eastern Europe, and Dubai. Sweden and Poland also have large exposure to Eastern Europe.
CMA DataVision has issued a Q4 report on the Global of countries by percentage of risk for sovereign default based on CDS prices. It is a multi-page report but here is page 13 with a listing of countries by percentage probability of default. The top ten are Venezuela, Ukraine, Argentina, Latvia, Iceland, Dubai, Lithuania, Romania, Lebanon, and Greece. It should be noted that Greece has started to take serious action to curtail spending and has about a year to get its debt and budget under control. It will be interesting to see if the public demonstrations by young people in Greece will moderate or increase. Spain has serious economic contraction and, while the economy appears to be picking up in Italy, there have been reports of right wing reactions, particularly against immigrants.
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Moody's Misery Index listed countries with public debt in relation to sovereign default risk in descending order or risk: Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Greece, United Kingdom, Iceland, United States, Jamaica, France, Estonia, Portugal, Hungary, Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic. Take note of number 6 and number 8 on the list.
The 6th largest Austrian Bank, Hypo Group Alpe Adria, was was nationalized by the Austrian government as insolvent with 40 billion Euros in assets at the insistence of the ECB's chairman Trichet. The bank is a subsidiary of the German bank, Bavaria BayernLB, which had reported losses of over 1 billion Euros for the second quarter in a row from HGAA. Austrian banks have been the subject of how much exposure they have to lending in weak Eastern European countries and some analysts consider German banks fragile as the result of reckless lending seeking high returns. Credit Writedowns has an excellent article on the nationalization of HGPP and its relation to what is going on in Austria, Germany, Eastern Europe, and Dubai. Sweden and Poland also have large exposure to Eastern Europe.
CMA DataVision has issued a Q4 report on the Global of countries by percentage of risk for sovereign default based on CDS prices. It is a multi-page report but here is page 13 with a listing of countries by percentage probability of default. The top ten are Venezuela, Ukraine, Argentina, Latvia, Iceland, Dubai, Lithuania, Romania, Lebanon, and Greece. It should be noted that Greece has started to take serious action to curtail spending and has about a year to get its debt and budget under control. It will be interesting to see if the public demonstrations by young people in Greece will moderate or increase. Spain has serious economic contraction and, while the economy appears to be picking up in Italy, there have been reports of right wing reactions, particularly against immigrants.
Print Page
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Illinois Credit Rating Tanks
We are repeating the lead story on our last Radio Show, because the fact that the State of Illinois had its credit rating effectively lowered by Moody's to just above California's Baa1 making Illinois 49th out of the 50 states has, to my knowledge, received no media attention in paper, radio, or television. Why?
General obligation bonds went from A1 to A2 citing problems from the US recession; other Illinois bonds including sales tax revenue bonds from A1 to A2. Illinois has dropped from the middle of the pack of 50 States to next to last in one fell swoop. Moody's said Illinois has not taken action of any sort to deal with the budget gap it is facing. Moody's said that gap is in the order of $11 billion. Actually, it is conservatively a deficit of $12 billion and could be closer to $15 billion depending on how you account for Federal stimulus money, funds from borrowing, and other one time monies which are not revenue.
It is well known we have made the case for State employee's Pension reform. It is not funded and there is no economically competent system for funding Illinois pensions. Despite a recession in which taxes should not be increased according to economic theory, Illinois has been so corruptly and incompetently run for so many years that a flat income tax increase is so imperative it has become a rotting corpse. Illinois local governments have placed an intolerable burden of regressive taxes and levies (in Chicago 25%, approximately, of the cost of gasoline at the pump goes to taxes and Chicago has the highest sales tax in the country) that the burden on the lowest 40% of taxpayers in Illinois is unconscionable. But no politician wants to help those people. While cost savings should always be investigated and pursued each and every year just as private business does, cutting expenses cannot in any rational, conceivable way balance the Illinois budget. The Democrats need to conduct rational program and employee reviews of double exempt and exempt personnel and the Republicans need to bite the tax bullet. Given the coming Primary in February, neither political party wants to assume any responsibility for getting the job done. They just want to be elected. Maybe it is time to just vote against any incumbent and make the lobbyist fork out even more money to buy the new legislators and executive branch officers.
The Illinois budget situation is so beyond hope that the solutions are few and narrow. The pretense and posturing of political purity is a poor disguise for a deadly social disease. Represent the people and get it done. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the obvious much less require the unanimity of any 13 politicians with a bag of 30 silver coins. No Hope.
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General obligation bonds went from A1 to A2 citing problems from the US recession; other Illinois bonds including sales tax revenue bonds from A1 to A2. Illinois has dropped from the middle of the pack of 50 States to next to last in one fell swoop. Moody's said Illinois has not taken action of any sort to deal with the budget gap it is facing. Moody's said that gap is in the order of $11 billion. Actually, it is conservatively a deficit of $12 billion and could be closer to $15 billion depending on how you account for Federal stimulus money, funds from borrowing, and other one time monies which are not revenue.
It is well known we have made the case for State employee's Pension reform. It is not funded and there is no economically competent system for funding Illinois pensions. Despite a recession in which taxes should not be increased according to economic theory, Illinois has been so corruptly and incompetently run for so many years that a flat income tax increase is so imperative it has become a rotting corpse. Illinois local governments have placed an intolerable burden of regressive taxes and levies (in Chicago 25%, approximately, of the cost of gasoline at the pump goes to taxes and Chicago has the highest sales tax in the country) that the burden on the lowest 40% of taxpayers in Illinois is unconscionable. But no politician wants to help those people. While cost savings should always be investigated and pursued each and every year just as private business does, cutting expenses cannot in any rational, conceivable way balance the Illinois budget. The Democrats need to conduct rational program and employee reviews of double exempt and exempt personnel and the Republicans need to bite the tax bullet. Given the coming Primary in February, neither political party wants to assume any responsibility for getting the job done. They just want to be elected. Maybe it is time to just vote against any incumbent and make the lobbyist fork out even more money to buy the new legislators and executive branch officers.
The Illinois budget situation is so beyond hope that the solutions are few and narrow. The pretense and posturing of political purity is a poor disguise for a deadly social disease. Represent the people and get it done. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the obvious much less require the unanimity of any 13 politicians with a bag of 30 silver coins. No Hope.
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