Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Eyes On Growth: Update Links 8/3/2011

 The US ADP Private Employment Survey came in at up 114,000 jobs which was over expectations of 100,000.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing (service sector) PMI was down in July to 52.7 from 53.3.  It was expected to be up.

On Italy running out of money

Is Italian bond sell-off self-fulfilling?

eurozone crisis widening

eurozone domino effect

Widening eurozone crisis demands bigger rescue fund

Death by 1000 cuts or EU bond

Italian growth & banks

Italian, Spanish ten year bond yields at record high on growth concerns

European money markets freezing

Irish leaving Ireland to find jobs

European crisis is not over (this is a somewhat hopeful apologia that only debt reduction will save Greece; it will only make it worse)

Greek default not realistic (argues that it would take two years to print and coin new currency and it would have to be done in absolute secrecy)

Germany's road to 1930's currency crisis (it was not hyperinflation --- that was in early twenties)

1930's redux

Swiss defend franc with interest rate cut (at least they are not repeating their mistake of last year and buying euro to intervene and lower franc; it cost them significant losses)

Australian retail sector in recession

China non-manufacturing PMI up to 59.6

Assessing the debt ceiling damage on growth and unemployment

The debt ceiling debate that did not happen (the middle class is getting stiffed while the wealthy skate)

The Rube Goldberg doomsday machine (from Nouriel Roubini's Econometer blog)

Debt debate distracted us from recession threat

Small business owners using pawn shops for business liquidity

Lack of jobs and weak tax receipts trump deficit hysteria

Recession probability increases (national Bureau of Economic Research, which ex post facto determine beginning and end of recessions, members give personal opinions)

Keep you eyes active and your minds open; keep your critical analysis skills sharp.

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