Is High Corporate Credit An Inceasing Risk to the Economy?

 Last year, the Fed commented on the historical level of corporate credit with rapid growth concentrated in the riskiest firms.  One risk is a market dislocation which causes an increase in credit spreads and a contraction of credit market liquidity.  In January 2020, Moody's Analytics questioned if overvalued equities increase the risk of high corporate debt, because the debt could impact profits and/or cash flow and this might promote a equity market downturn and increase pressure on companies with high debt.  At the present time, the market overvaluation is not at the level of 1999-2000.  Moody's Analytics has published a second commentary entitled, "How Corporate Credit Might Burst An Equity Bubble".  The article continues the discussion of a market downturn amplifying corporate leverage and the two feeding on each other.  The one data set you should watch
is the gap in the spread between the Composite High Yield Bonds and Median High Yield Bonds.  In 2019 the average spread was 67 basis points of the Composite over the Median.  As that widens, risk increases.

The threat looms but has not yet presented an imminent danger.

 
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