Avoid Space X IPO

The Space X IPO is priced at $135 per share, which is approximately twice the actual value of the proposed company, and the parts of the proposed company are all high spending revenue losers making the financials very risky, although the data centers may be a revenue producer in the future (do you believe in the AI bubble?).

Elon Musk will have 85% control with a dual class shareholder structure limiting any shareholder voice, creating Musk conflicts of interest combined with a Musk "friendly" board,  and it has a tiered lock up multiple period allowing stock sells well before the usual 180 day lock up: first is 20% two days after its first June 2026 earnings report and another 10% if stock trades 30% above IPO price for five of the ten days leading up to the first earnings release, then an ability to sell 7%, without respect to trading price, on each of 70, 60, 105, 120, and 135 days after IPO, 28% after the September 2026 3rd Quarter earnings report, with the tiered lock up ending after 180 days.

 While Musk and "certain large investors" are locked up for 366 days and no insider can sell into the IPO.

About 4,400 current former Space X employees will become millionaires and there are at least several Trump government officials who hold Space X shares as well as Trump Jr through 1789 Capital which owns xAI and Space X stock.

While it is normal for at least 10% of stock to be available for retail purchase, Musk has insisted 30% be available (with retail investors required to be qualified with as little as $2000 in their account) which should create a great sucking noise in the Market.

Musk's money losing companies need money and Musk is willing to take your money on his very sparse terms and if you keep your mouth shut and suck it up. 

 

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Trump Accounts Cannot Fund Retirement

 If you go to the government Trump Accounts website, you will find misleading unrealistic results for contributions, such as just $1000 growing to over $200,000 by age 55.  This assumes a 10% annual rate of return.  Forecasts of annual stock market rate of return range from 3.1 to 6.7% (as of January 2026) over the next ten years.  The government projection does not adjust for inflation or taxes upon withdrawal.

Assuming a very optimistic 6.7%, after adjusting for inflation and 12% tax upon withdrawal, a $1000 contribution would yield $46,000 at age 55, which would be only $8000 in today's purchasing power.

 Additionally, mathematically, the 10% annual rate of return is economically unsustainable.  This can be determined by using the reciprocal of the PE ratio.  The reciprocal of the current PE ratio of 40 would be a sustainable return (earnings yield) of 2.5%.  The PE ratio would have to be substantially better to provide a 10% annual return.

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