Saturday, August 11, 2018

When Government Serves Only Some People --- Video

In Illinois there are over 1400 (1429-1431 depending on who you ask) and 25 townships in Sangamon County which cost County residents $6,461,080 in 2017 property taxes which works out to $84.42 in administrative expenses for each $100 of services, which is not just grossly inefficient, it is obscene.  In fact the administrative expenses may be even higher because some expenditures,

Friday, August 10, 2018

Tariffs and Trade Wars

Markets do not like tariffs.  They react negatively and add to markets dislike of economic and political uncertainty.  Trade wars only intensify economic and political uncertainty.  The United States not only imports, it exports.  Both imports and exports result in jobs.  In a trade war, job losses

Thursday, August 9, 2018

The Flattening Yield Curve as a Sign of Economic Strength

The economist, Tim Duy, has written another article on the flattening yield curve in which he details how, given our current economy and economic data, the current flattening yield curve is most likely an all clear signal of economic strength. He concludes, "The thing to fear is when inflationary

Saturday, July 21, 2018

When is a Flattening Yield Curve Inversion Really Significant?

Tim Duy has written an excellent article on the recession significance of a flattening yield curve inversion in which he concludes it is not likely to result in a recession until the Federal Reserve continues hiking rates after the inversion.  I think he is correct.

There has been a lot of alarmist speculation on yield curve inversions signaling recession without a thorough look at history and the differences with the past that a long flattening of the yield curve in a