Looking for the Missing Economic Federal Data

 During the shutdown everyone has been forced to seek sources to take the place of the US government missing economic data reports and the problem will continue briefly as the White House stated today (Wednesday 12 November) that October labor data may never be released and the Department of Labor is being urged to prioritize November data.

There are a variety of sources for alternative estimates and information and here are a few of them:

for labor market indicators Guy's Substack 

for economic takes on published pieces from variety of sources providing an alternative critical analysis  there is Beat the Press

 for some proprietary economic indicators there is Carlyle

for a variety of very professional economic data with a variety of technical graphs there is Econbrowser

for national and international economic information there is S&P Global 

 Jared's Substack provides professional economic analysis and political economy

the Federal Reserve Beige Report is a useful source of anecdotal economic information from the different Federal Reserve districts 

The Bonddad Blog provides economic analysis from a market perspective

there are several Federal Reserve blogs at different Federal Reserve Districts like Liberty Street Economics, On the Economy Blog, and Macroblog providing economic and macro monetary as well as banking and liquidity information

 CalculatedRisk is a valuable source of economic information and housing information

 for longer professional economic information and analysis there is the excellent Paul Krugman's Substack

 

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SNAP Benefits and the Politics of Cruelty

 To be very blunt, the federal government has the the contingency emergency funds in the amount of 5-6 billion dollars available and the legal authority and historical record to provide funding for SNAP benefits during the current government shutdown.  Any statement otherwise is a lie -- pure and simple deception.

The current budget bill had already cut benefits and the administration's refusal to fund SNAP, which has evolved since 1961 and existed in another form from 1933 to 1943, during the shut down will deprive 42 million Americans of whom approximately 40% are children and further composed of the disabled, senior citizens, and the families which care for them.  This will particularly affect Republican states and their Republican constituents.  It will also negatively affect GDP by approximately $7 billion with reduced spending at local food stores and supermarkets on top of a $7 to 14 billion government shutdown affect on GDP.

Trying to blame Democrats who are trying, in the only way available to them, to condition a new continuing resolution, which is not clean in the actual use of appropriated funds, to continue affordable health insurance under the ACA which were cut in the "Big Beautiful Bill" and would raise premiums an average of 114% if the 2025 subsidies were not continued, affecting 15 million people.  The shut down will also not fund LIHEAP, senior citizen housing subsidies, WIC, and Headstart.

While some states are making efforts to provide some funding and support while others are not, two Federal judges have ordered the Federal government to use the contingency emergency funds.  However, this administration always appeals legal rulings and delays taking action and has ignored the appropriation uses and amounts approved by Congress.  Children, the disabled, senior citizens, and families will go with the economic resources to buy food and stay marginally healthy.

Children, the disabled, senior citizens, and the families which care for them are now being held hostage by a Republican administration, a Republican House of Representatives, and a Republican Senate to deny American families affordable health insurance.  This is the Country in which we now live.

 

 

 

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Medicare Portal Errors Providing Misleading Information on Medicare Advantage Plans

The Washington Post has reported that the Medicare Portal open today is providing misleading information on Medicare Advantage plans and the government is "rushing" to fix it. 

All seniors seeking Medicare Advantage plans should double check by looking at independent comparative sites such as NerdWallet, seek assistance from your state health insurance information program (SHIP), confirm the information with the issuing companies, and immediately review the program plan upon receipt and cancel if it is not what you thought would meet your needs.

Here is the Washington Post article which is paywalled.  I no longer subscribe to The Washington Post as it has abandoned journalistic ethical independent editorial policy.

 

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Fed Chairman Powell's Speech and Today's Beige Report on Economy

Yesterday, 14 October 25, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech the stock market interpreted as an indication the Fed will cut rates again.  In actuality, he said inflation is trending up short term goods prices reflecting tariffs but not yet effecting long term and employment remains low despite wage gains likely due to lower immigration and labor force participation.  This indicates no risk-free path between inflation and employment and a need to base future monetary action on economic data every month.  Here is his speech.

Today, the Fed Beige Report  on the economy came out showing muted employment demand and increased input costs from a variety of sources including tariff input increased costs, of which not all are being passed through to prices.  The gives a brief overview and then Fed District by District particulars.  Here is the Beige Report.

 Give the missing government economic information not being issued during the government shutdown and a purposeful deconstruction of governmental services, anything helps.

The September BIS Quarterly Report provides some global economic insights. 

The IMF World Economic Outlook for this month is out providing some GDP and inflation data.  The Global Financial Stability Report is also available.

It preferable to read the actual speeches and reports than rely on news interpretations.  Unfortunately, the stock market is more easily moved by "news" than the hard data and context. 

 

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