Yesterday, 14 October 25, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech the stock market interpreted as an indication the Fed will cut rates again. In actuality, he said inflation is trending up short term goods prices reflecting tariffs but not yet effecting long term and employment remains low despite wage gains likely due to lower immigration and labor force participation. This indicates no risk-free path between inflation and employment and a need to base future monetary action on economic data every month. Here is his speech.
Today, the Fed Beige Report on the economy came out showing muted employment demand and increased input costs from a variety of sources including tariff input increased costs, of which not all are being passed through to prices. The gives a brief overview and then Fed District by District particulars. Here is the Beige Report.
Give the missing government economic information not being issued during the government shutdown and a purposeful deconstruction of governmental services, anything helps.
The September BIS Quarterly Report provides some global economic insights.
The IMF World Economic Outlook for this month is out providing some GDP and inflation data. The Global Financial Stability Report is also available.
It preferable to read the actual speeches and reports than rely on news interpretations. Unfortunately, the stock market is more easily moved by "news" than the hard data and context.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment